Influencia de la variabilidad climática sobre la producción de café (Coffea arabica L.) en Honduras

Abstract

The research objective was to determinate the effect of the climate variables: annual rainfall, average annual temperature, temperature and precipitation; recorded against the different coffee phenology stages; and with pre-harvest management practices on coffee grain yield. The research took in consideration the country’s different departments and small coffee producers. Data from 10 cycles of coffee harvest (1999-2000 to cycle 2008-2009) from 11 departments were used to evaluate the effect of climate variables on coffee grain yield. Regarding small coffee producers, data from COMICAOL and COMIPIL cooperatives from El Paraíso department were used. Two series of time were analyzed: first, seven cycles of coffee harvest (2003-2004 to cycle 2009-2010) to determinate the effect of the climate variables on coffee grain yield; second, five cycles of coffee harvest (2005-2006 to cycle 2009-2010) to evaluated the effect of climate variables and pre-harvest management practices (fertilization, sanitary pruning, shade regulation) on coffee yield. Neither the variation in annual rainfall from 1999 - 2008 in the departments nor variation in rainfall by the phenology stages of the coffee crop presented significant effects on coffee grain yield. However, annual temperatures showed significant effect (p=0.011) with yield with a positive coefficient of 61.33. Regarding temperatures registered in the different phenology stages, the temperature registered in the grain filling stage showed significant effect (p=0.022) on yield with a positive coefficient of 87.04. Temperature at pre flowering, flowering and grain ripening, did not present significant effects. As regards small-producers data for the cycle of harvest 2005-2006 to 2009-2010 in El Paraíso department, climate variables did not influence on coffee grain yield. The application of inorganic fertilizer before harvest showed significant effect (p=0.044) on yielding, with 0.38 coefficient. Other management practices did not show significant effect. Annual rainfall had significant effect (p=0.034) on yield when time frame was extended from 2003-2004 to cycle 2009-2010 with positive coefficient of 0.10. The precipitation registered in the grain filling stage opresented significant effect (p=0.012) on coffee yielding with positive coefficient of 0.18. The temperature variable was not evaluated due to most of the information being incomplete for this site.