Potencial del mecanismo de desarrollo limpio en las plantaciones forestales en Panamá

Abstract

Se determinó el potencial para proyectos de plantación forestal bajo el mecanismo de desarrollo limpio (MDL) en Panamá con un enfoque espacial. Se consideró la especie teca como representativa de las plantaciones forestales de Panamá.Se estudiaron la adicionalidad y la elegibilidad de tierras para ubicar las áreas de Panamá con más potencial. El análisis financiero de la adicionalidad está compuesto por dos elementos: la no rentabilidad sin el MDL y la rentabilidad con el MDL, y éstos dependen de la calidad de sitio, la distancia al puerto de referencia y del valor de la tierra. Se concluyó que las áreas con mayor potencial, teniendo en cuenta la adicionalidad y legibilidad de tierras, se encuentran en las regiones de Veraguas (36%), Panamá (28%), Darién (12%) y Herrera (9%). We determined the potentiality of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for forest plantation projects in Panama. Additionality and land eligibility are the two most restrictive issues for afforestation/reforestation projects under the CDM. The potentiality of the CDM is composed of two factors: a low profitability without the CDM and a high profitability with the CDM, both depending on soil quality, distance to exportation port, and land value. Results showed that areas with greater potential of additionality and land eligibility were located in the regions of Veraguas (36%), Panama (28%), Herrera (9%) and Darien (12%).

We determined the potentiality of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for forest plantation projects in Panama. Additionality and land eligibility are the two most restrictive issues for afforestation/reforestation projects under the CDM. Additionality and land eligibility were evaluated with a spatial approach to locate the areas with more potentiality in Panama. The potentiality of the CDM is composed of two factors: a low profitability without the CDM and a high profitability with the CDM, both depending on soil quality, distance to exportation port, and land value. A financial analysis was applied with a general equation representing the profit value of the plantations by districts. This equation used the Land Expected Value (LEV) as financial indicator and compared the LEV with the market land value, assumed to be a proxy of the LEV for the best land use if land speculation is not considered. Fuzzy variables were used to represent the variability and ambiguity of the parameters and their values. Teak was selected as the representative species for forest plantations in Panama. Results showed that areas with greater potential of additionality and land eligibility were located in the regions of Veraguas (36%), Panama (28%), Herrera (9%) and Darien (12%)