Aplicación del método experimentos de selección para analizar preferencias de turistas por el Volcán Barva, Costa Rica

Abstract

En esta investigación se utiliza el método de "experimentos de selección" para estudiar las preferencias de los individuos por el desarrollo del Sector del Volcán Barva, ubicado en el Parque Nacional Braulio Carrillo, Costa Rica. Se realizaron entrevistas personales, a visitantes costarricenses y extranjeros. Uno de los objetivos fue analizar las motivaciones de visita a áreas naturales protegidas, actitudes ante el problema planteado y el experimento de selección condicional de uno de tres escenarios posibles que podrían ocurrir con el desarrollo del Sector del Volcán Barva. Las preferencias fueron estudiadas basándose en diferentes niveles de seis atributos del sitio, los cuales fueron definidos tomando en cuenta las sugerencias de los administradores del área, operadores turísticos y expertos en el tema. Los niveles de los atributos corresponden a situaciones factibles, y al menos uno de ellos en cada atributo corresponde a la situación actual. Estos resultados podrían proveer una visión amplia de la planificación en conjunto de las áreas naturales protegidas por el estado que están amenazadas por el congestionamiento y por ende la presión sobre los recursos naturales debido a su cercanía a San José.

Individual preferences for the development of the Barva Volcano Sector, of the Braulio Carrillo National Park, costa Rica, are studied, using the choice experiments. The objectives were analyzing the motivations to visit natural protected areas, attitudes against the stated problem and the conditional choice experiment of one of three possible scenarios which could ocur during development of the Barva Volcano Sector. Preferences were studied based on different levels of six site attributes, defined according to suggestions of area administrators, tour operators and experts on the topic. The attibute levels correspond to feasible stituations, and at least one of them in every attribute to the actual situation. The model is conditionally logistic with selection probability of every scenario as dependent variable and site attributes as independent variables. Estimated parameters correspond to the site associated attributes and are of maximum likelihood. The results indicate national and foreign tourist's preferences in three of the six attributes. Semi-rustic infrastructure development, higher level of information and restrictions to footpaths visitors numbers are equally preferred by both groups. National tourists prefer overhead traMON and observation towers, picnic areas only at the park entrances and actual price levels. The foreign tourists prefer the absence of overhead traMON and observation towers, picnic areas both at park entrances and footpaths and are willing to pay for higher than actual prices. The choice probability analyses indicates that rustic and semi-rustic infrastructure development scenarios are most proximate. However, this does not occur with these two options, compared with the modern option which is the less preferred, even when associated with any combination of the remaining levels of any option. The marginal effect analysis indicates that changes in normalized attribute levels towards remaining levels of every attribute provoke a positive chance lesser or equal than 12 percent, except for the information levels only signs in the footpaths.