Una metodología para la estimación de probabilidades de lluvia por procedimientos cuantitativos, en puntos carentes de registros, sin el análisis espacial tradicional. Estudio de un caso: Estado Falcón, Venezuela

Abstract

This article includes a method to estimate rain probabilities in points in Falcon State, Venezuela, defined by its geographical coordinates using a desk micro-computer. The steps are as follows. selection of the best fit probability distribution, correc-tion of parameters in function of the length of the historical series, error studies in short series, selection of empirical models to make estimations, statistical tests to validate the system, comparisons between historical and simulated series, and others. An important step during validation and verification is the comparison of the results with those calculated by conventional techniques of isolities. This model substitutes the equivalent to 132 conventional maps of rain probability with acceptable precision.